Dai Supply Projection Poll

Heat check for the community. What will the Dai supply (in million) be a year from now?

  • 200
  • 300
  • 400
  • 500

0 voters

1 Like

Why is the maximum only 500 million? Where is your optimism? :grin:

6 Likes

500 million is more than 1m growth per day. Seems delusional, unfortunately :slight_smile:

I reckon around 250mil, I rounded up to 300.

If DAI is 500M in a year that will be a huge failure. USDC will be several times bigger than DAI by that time and it is even possible that another decentralized stablecoin becomes more popular than DAI.

2 Likes

Just for fun. Dai supply per makerburn.com’s chart:

01/01/2020: 72,3 mil
01/12/2020: 83,8 mil

Average daily growth is circa 1,13 mil $.

At this rate we are between 400 and 500 mil at the end of the 2020.

4 Likes

I went for 200 mln
Unless ETH rises up like crazy or MKR soon onboard some off-chain collateral I think there is no room for much more than it is now. Simply not every ETH owner want to put it into Vault and mint tons of DAI with it.

Growth is non-linear. If ETH starts going up then people will want to mint DAI and buy more ETH with it for leverage. When the global print bubble bursts people will lose faith in banks so DAI looks more attractive than other stablecoins. Not that it is guaranteed to burst in the next year, but people are increasingly getting ready for it.

With right monetary policy and a bit of marketing I think we can reach 2B by the end of 2020. Don’t forget that ETH was at $1400 and that it will probably return to that level within 1.5 years (based on BTC price history). If we don’t have large enough DAI supply - we cannot possibly control the peg.

This is a completely ridiculous argument. I personally want ETH to increase in price, but the dynamics are likely to be completely different than BTC. As we move to proof-of-stake, the inflation of ETH will drop a lot, but as scalability solutions are deployed, there will be a lot less organic demand for ETH to pay for gas. Anybody who says that they can predict what is going to happen is talking out of their ass.

I don’t agree. When BTC rises, ETH also rises. Whether it is a few percentages more or a few weeks later - it doesn’t matter. You cannot argue that some completely different trend will emerge because ETH will be 2.0 instead of 1.0. I understand your argument for less ETH demand in that specific case but too many other variables are unknown. Since there will likely be no really radical crypto improvements in next year or two - the driver for the next bubble will (also) be speculation.

There is absolutely no reason not to believe that we will see new ATH for major coins soon. It happened in 2013, 2017 and it will happen again because nothing fundamentally changed in crypto space from 2011 to 2020.

Summary of 2011-2020 developments: new developments/advances/services in crypto.
Summary of 2011-2020 prices: bubbles and busts but overall growth except for coins which fell into obscurity.

Having said all that - I think that unforeseen/unpredictable events can still cause all this industry to fail or become a niche. I’d give that outcome 30% chance.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d be thrilled to see this happen, but I judge the chance of this as approaching zero. While demand for Dai is growing, I think we are very far away from seeing that exponential increase some people seem to be expecting.

3 Likes

Feel like it all depends on ETHs movements. If eth gets back to the 500s the current 1,930,578 eth locked in vaults would almost be worth 1B. 1000s (obviously unlikely but hey has happened) around 2B. I can see $500 eth and .5B Dai as possible

1 Like

I thought this topic is just for speculative fun, not for discussing how to valuate ether, which seems completely impossible at this point in crypto.

Anyways, to reduce optimism a little, if we disregard migrated sai: average growth this year is around 0,68 mil per day. Ether price went up 28 percent.

1 Like

Interesting things happened and I figured this needs an update:

Dai supply:
01/01/2020: 72.3 mil
05/31/2020: 124.8 mil (few mils short of ATH)

Eth price went up 82.3%.

Average daily growth is 0.35 mil per day.
At this rate we are around 200 mil per day at the end of the year.

1 Like

Dai supply growth is way too slow. We need more collateral ASAP.

4 Likes

I’t slow because of the system design. No amount of collateral can change that. The DAI price is above the peg for 3 months despite all added collateral, 0% SF…

1 Like

Well… not sure what to add :sweat_smile:

2 Likes

Hahahahaha. I guess we’re all delusional!

2 Likes