Maker Risk Dashboard

Hey everyone,

As mentioned in the recent Governance & Risk calls, we recently started developing a Maker risk analytics website which we started calling Maker Risk Dashboard.

After months (for me personally years) of risk related work our team realized that it is hard for community members to navigate through our forum posts to get informed on various risk proposals. We could say that 99% of all our past analyses are published on forum.makerdao.com, yet it is hard to search for our specific recommendations on a particular topic. Furthermore, our analyses were often supported by various data sheets, mostly published on google drive, which created a long list of files and calculations that were hard to maintain. The nature of manual analytics done in google sheets, such as calculating risk premiums or debt ceilings for particular vaults also started to burden us with unnecessary calculations, while many of such calculations could be automated.

This is why we started working on a risk analytics dashboard, currently focused mostly on automated risk metrics of loan facilities at Maker: https://maker.blockanalitica.com/

We also started devoting more time to automated quantitative modelling that helps us identify appropriate risk compensated stability fees and maximum debt ceilings: https://simulation.blockanalitica.com/

We plan to open source the model and make it interactive so that users can choose between different inputs to simulate various risk outputs.

List of current metrics followed:

  • Vault type metrics
    • Liquidations risks
    • Risk premium to Debt Ceiling curves
    • Collateralization ratio distribution
    • General stats about vaults
  • Collateral asset metrics
    • DEX & CEX (real) volumes
    • On-chain slippage
    • Price drawdowns
    • Volatility patterns
    • Correlations (soon)
    • General token stats (holding distribution, price changes, market cap, etc.)
  • Quantitative Models
    • Stress tests / Risk Premium to DC Curve

What’s on our current roadmap?

  • Organize and structure our proposals on specific risk topic

    • Includes links to forum proposals
    • Collateral evaluations
    • Research & MIP related evaluations
    • Regular updates on state of vaults, collateral assets and DAI metrics
  • Liquidation efficiency metrics

    • Auction efficiency
    • Keepers’ profits
    • Participation
    • Flashloan usage
  • Vault users analytics

    • Vaults protected
    • Behavioral patterns
    • Churn rate
    • Rate sensitivity
  • DAI stats

    • Liquidity and Volumes
    • Usage and flows between whitelisted addresses
  • Stress tests

    • Let community simulate inputs per asset such as severity and frequency of collateral price drops to obtain risk metrics per collateral type
  • VaR calculations

    • Upgrade the current Risk Model to include correlations between assets
    • Calculate VaR by using wider array of input variable distributions

Please give us feedback on our current dashboards and our roadmap. We’ll primarily focus on risk type of analytics rather than supporting a wider array of business intelligence for Maker. We believe makerburn.com is currently the best source when analyzing Maker P&L and growth related activity, whereas risk based metrics will be supported here. Yet, many of our metrics such as vault behavior patterns that we plan to cover next can both be useful for risk analytics as for business intelligence purposes.

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Absolutely amazing idea. Kudos for taking this task on.

Talk about good timing…lol

Hey all,

just want to inform everyone we deployed few useful sections to our Risk Dasboards:

Auctions General stats: https://maker.blockanalitica.com/auctions/history
Auctions Stats per date: https://maker.blockanalitica.com/auctions/history/2021-05-19
Auction Stats per date & asset: https://maker.blockanalitica.com/auctions/history/2021-05-19/ETH-A/

Loan Loss Simulations (Real time Risk Premiums & Max. Debt Ceilings): https://simulation.blockanalitica.com

Risk Core Unit Forum Archive: https://maker.blockanalitica.com/forum-archive

7 Likes

As some of you already notice, we have a new design for our Risk Dashboard https://maker.blockanalitica.com/. And with that there are few new features/graphs. From now on we will be doing weekly updates what we are adding/changing/fixing on dashboard.

Here are last week updates:

  • In Vaults Liquidation graph you can now see how much debt is protected by DeFI Saver. In the coming weeks we are planning to improve this even further with our vault risk score, so you will be able to see how much debt is really at risk and how many has good protection (DeFi Saver, bots, managed vault, …)

  • We are also now showing in the Vaults at risk section if the vault is protected by DeFi Saver, so you don’t need to worry that these vaults will be liquidated. As I said before, in the coming weeks we will be improving on trying to estimate, how much debt is really at risk at that moment.

  • We added historical vault stats graphs. For most stats we are doing snapshot every day, so you can see how some stat changed over time

  • We added a Liquidity score, which we are using to calculate the correct risk premium for that vault. Score will tell you how much liquid (how much slippage it has) is an asset if we need to liquidate all debt. So you will notice that ETH has a lower score than some other asset even if ETH is a lot more liquid, that is because for ETH we need to liquidate a lot more debt than ZRX for example.

  • On Gas monitor we added Auction Kick and Take action, we are working on adding even more actions and more correct gas used based on historic transactions

We would value any feedback, specific requests, or suggestions regarding these updates or dashboard overall. Please add any comments below or on our github discussion page Discussions · blockanalitica/community · GitHub

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Weekly updates:

We would value any feedback, specific requests, or suggestions regarding these updates or dashboard overall. Please add any comments below or on our github discussion page Discussions · blockanalitica/community · GitHub

8 Likes

This is really great. Especially the peg data. Is there a way to grab that peg data in a CSV?

We are using data from https://dai.stablecoin.science/ which have csv for every trade

1 Like

Awesome! Also would love to do a weekly overview of volume and maybe, someday, the volume weighted average price of DAI may return :sweat_smile:

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Weekly update:

Last week we didn’t have any update, because we were working on Vault Protection Score Maker Vault Protection Score

  • on dashboard you can now see few new graphs/stats related to protection score/vault risk, here are some examples

  • small visual improvements and bug fixes
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