MakerDAO Budget Simulator - 9+3 Revenue & Cash Flow Forecast

All,

Please find the 9+3 Revenue and Cash Flow Forecast here. All existing and prospective Core Units are listed with an associated status, as well as corresponding MKR budgets if applicable. All CU expenses are included in the forecast and P&L calculations.

While we are forecasting to finish 2021 at nearly 11x 2020 FY revenue, the rolling 12 month forecast is less favorable due to lower stability fee rates. Assuming no change in our assets generating stability fees, we are forecasting $72.8M in revenue broken down by the following income streams.

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Forecast Assumptions:
Interest Stability Fees): maintain stable at current levels

Liquidation Fees: prior three month average. In September we saw a significant increase in crypto price volatility, leading to $3.5M in liquidation fees. If crypto markets stabilize or downward volatility decreases, it is likely less liquidation fees will be generated.

Trading Fees: prior three month average.

Opportunities to drive incremental revenue not included in forecast:

  • Over $3B USDC and nearly $400M USDP in the PSM that could be invested to earn interest (see @rune’s thread on investing these assets in ESG credit.
  • Scaling Real World Assets (NS-DROP $20M, SolarX $21M, 6S $15M, FortunaFi $15M, Treasuries), etc.
  • Investing in DAI Derivatives (i.e. D3M)
  • Institutional vaults, SushiLPs, CropJoin

As a reminder, non-cash expenses reflect the MKR compensation; green highlighted plans have been approved, yellow has been proposed, and red are placeholders. While these expenses impact Net Protocol Income, there is no impact on cash flow. While cash flow is positive, the SB will continue to increase. The model assumes a safe scenario where no MKR is burnt until the SB is above risk targets.

RWF has begun requesting and consolidating actuals expenses from the Core Units and will provide a consolidated forecast once reconciled and expense types are categorized.

As with all models we share, please feel free to download and include your own inputs and assumptions. If you have any questions, please let me know.

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